Nigeria’s domestic petrol demand experienced a slight decline in the first half of 2026, as elevated pump prices following subsidy removal, currency devaluation, and Middle East geopolitical tensions reshaped consumer behavior. According to data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), total petrol consumption dropped by 0.56%or approximately 52 million litres, to 9.316 billion litres between January and June 2026, compared to 9.368 billion litres during the corresponding period in 2025.
This moderation in demand reflects a sharp escalation in fuel costs nationwide. Since the removal of the petrol subsidy upon President Bola Tinubu taking office on May 29, 2023, petrol prices have surged by roughly 643%, escalating from N175 per litre to N1,300 per litre by May 2026. By June 2026, average retail pump prices ranged between N1,284.50 per litre in Lagos and N1,393 per litre in Maiduguri, representing a steep jump from average prices of N910 and N982.50 recorded in November 2025. On a monthly basis throughout H1 2026, daily consumption started at 60.2 million litres in January (1.866 billion litres total) before dropping to 56.9 million litres in February (1.593 billion litres total) and reaching a low of 47.3 million litres in March (1.466 billion litres total). Demand slightly recovered to 51.1 million litres per day in April (1.533 billion litres total), fell to 46.3 million litres per day in May (1.435 billion litres total), and settled at 47.4 million litres per day in June (1.422 billion litres total).
Even as consumer demand softened, domestic refining expanded significantly to become the primary source of fuel supply, drastically reducing reliance on foreign imports. Local refineries supplied 6.609 billion litres or 77.9% of the total 8.482 billion litres of petrol supplied to the domestic market during the six-month period, leaving imported fuel to account for the remaining 1.873 billion litres (22.1%).
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery played a central role in this domestic shift, operating at an average capacity utilization of 101.36% in June 2026. During that month, the facility produced 39.1 million litres per day of petrol, delivering 32.5 million litres daily to the domestic market, exporting 3.4 million litres per day, and closing the month with 410.7 million litres in reserve. Total daily petrol supply in June actually rose by 7% to 50.6 million litres per day (up from 47.4 million litres in May), a spike driven entirely by a 207% surge in imports (from 5.9 million to 18.1 million litres per day) that offset a 22% decline in domestic receipts (from 41.5 million to 32.5 million litres per day).
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These domestic developments unfolded against a backdrop of severe global disruptions. A report released by the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) detailed how Middle East geopolitical conflicts involving Israel, Iran, and the United States which flared up on February 28, 2026 injected heavy risk premiums into global markets, pushing crude oil benchmarks past $100 per barrel. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was bottlenecked, forcing oil tankers to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope and extending typical voyage times from 18 days to nearly 40 days. Operating under a newly deregulated downstream system, Nigeria felt this global price shock immediately, recording a 39.5% surge in gasoline prices during H1 2026 the sharpest increase across Africa, more than doubling the price increases recorded by regional peers such as Egypt (14.3%).
Despite rising output from domestic refineries, national fuel reserves remained below regulatory targets. Data from the NMDPRA revealed that in June 2026, national petrol stock sufficiency stood at 20 days, falling short of the required 30-day benchmark. By comparison, stock sufficiency stood at 37 days for diesel, 73 days for aviation fuel, and 16 days for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).
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